On Election Eve, I stand by my predictions
For starters I should remind everyone that, yes, tomorrow is Election Day. So get out there and vote if you haven't already. Believe it or not, I would rather you vote for the degenerate swine that are in power now than not vote at all.
Anyway, I treated this blog like it was my own Cook Political Report over the last few months, banging out political predictions with the harsh judgement and brutal zeal of a Wahabbi cleric issuing fatwas. And now, on the eve of the election, I still stand by each and every one.
Way back in April, I posted my Senate predictions. Although a lot has changed, I still think my basic prediction of a 50/50 Senate, with Dick Cheney breaking the tie and the Senate therefore going Republican, is on the money. I hope I'm wrong, of course, and I think that a 51/49 Democratic majority is just as likely as a 50/50 tie. There are some differences with my old post from April, of course. Virginia wasn't an issue back then. And I had the Senate going 50 GOP, 49 Dem. and 1 Ind. Of course, there will actually be two independents, Bernie Sanders and the unforseen independent candidacy of Joe Lieberman. Back then, I had Tennessee going Ford. Now, I think the GOP will hold this one, while Claire MacCaskill will take out Jim Talent in Missouri. And then, there's the X factor of Virginia. With TN staying GOP and MO going Dem -- and Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Montana, and Ohio all playing out as predicted -- Virginia will decide the Senate majority. Honestly, I think a 51/49 Democratic majority is pretty likely. But I made the 50/50 prediction so long ago, and it's still pretty likely, so I'm gonna stick with my guns just so that I can boast about it when/if I'm right. For the record, though, I do hope I'm wrong.
More recently, but still before the primary elections, I called Charlie Crist to be the next governor of Florida. I see no reason to change that. Crist had a lot of problems in this political campaign, but the Davis camp refused to capitalize on them, and Davis never defined himself -- that's what happens when you have an empty-suit candidate.
Speaking of empty-suit candidates, I also called Ron Klein to beat Clay Shaw in the same blog entry. I'll stick with that prediction, though it's looking far more like that would be an upset victory.
Like the Senate predictions entry, there have been some changes since my Governor/House of Representatives blog entry. The biggest change is the fact that Mark Foley turned out to be a pederast. This put the 16th District in play, and that district wasn't even worth mentioning in my original entry.
Finally, there's my prediction that the Dems would pick up 21 seats and take the House of Representatives. I think that's still as good a number as any, though really it'll probably be more, since I neglected the state of New York, where Dems stand to gain about 3 or 4 seats. But I'll keep to that prediction, just for shits and giggles.
So, to sum up:
House: Dems pick up 21 seats and take control
Senate: Dems pick up 5 seats, GOP retains control
Governor: Charlie Crist beats Jim Davis
That's all, folks. Get out there and vote tomorrow.