My picks for the South Florida State House Races
Florida House of Representatives
Districts 78 and 80-120 pretty much cover South Florida. I’m going to leave off all the incumbents — I’ll more or less guarantee that they’ll all be re-elected. I've tried to include Web sites whenever I could, but sometimes I couldn't track them down. I find it almost impossible to believe that, in this day and age, a political candidate wouldn't have a Web site, but if I couldn't find it through Google or on the Florida Department of State's candidates site, I gave up. Anyway, as I said, no incumbents, just the open seats. Let’s see what that leaves us with.
District 82:
Incumbent: Republican Joe Negron is running in the GOP primary for state attorney-general (the spot being vacated by Charlie Crist, who is running for governor) against Bill McCollum, who memorably lost the 2004 GOP U.S. Senate primary to Mel Martinez after Martinez decried the extremely conservative McCollum as a favorite of “homosexual extremists.”
Outlook: Republican William Snyder, better funded, better supported and running in a mostly Republican district, will trounce Democratic contender Catherine Hilton.
Web site: SnyderForState.com
District 86
Incumbent: Democratic Leader Pro Tempore Annie Gannon is leaving her seat to run for Palm Beach County Tax Collector
Outlook: Four Democrats — Joseph Abruzzo, Harriet Lerman, Maria Sachs and Mark Alan Siegel — want to replace Gannon. Abruzzo opportunistically stepped into this race and left Republican County Commissioner Mary McCarty uncontested. Sachs has a big-time Republican donor for a husband. Siegel got hit with a sexual harassment lawsuit in New York. Harriet Lerman has a radio show, in which she comes off as shrill and angry — but hey, Democrats are pretty damn angry these days. I like Lerman.
Web sites: HarrietLerman.com, PeopleForSeigel.com, Sachs2006.com
District 90
Incumbent: Democrat Irv Slosberg is running for state senate against Ted Deutch
Outlook: Once again, four Democrats — Harvey Arnold, Sheldon Klasfeld, Kelly Skidmore and Len Turesky this time — want the job. I’m not familiar with Arnold. Klasfeld went down to disgrace a few years back after the charter school he ran was shut down because of fiscal and academic violations. Len “Babyface” Turesky sent out mailers that slimed opponent Skidmore. Which, of course, brings us to Skidmore — basically, there’s a reason Turesky slimed her instead of Klasfeld or Arnold. Skidmore’s the winner.
Web sites: KellySkidmore.com, LenTuresky.com
District 93
Incumbent: Democratic Minority Leader Chris Smith is term-limited out.
Outlook: As in a couple of the aforementioned districts, this one’s between Democrats. Alain Jean, Randy Smith, Perry Thurston, Sallie Bell Tillman-Watson and McKinley Williams are all running. Jean wants to get tougher on dumping, something I didn’t even realize was an issue — but he has also raised far more cash than his opponents. Smith has an array of stances, but focuses especially on increasing teacher salaries, reforming the insurance industry and offering tax incentives for solar energy use. Attorney Thurston has some political experience, unlike his novice competitors. Tillman-Watson is a long-time community activist. Williams filed late and no one seems to know a thing about him. We can forget about Williams, and I think most would-be Thurston voters will go for Jean. Smith’s got some good ideas, but one of the black candidates (i.e. every other candidate) would probably better represent this district. I’m inclined to think that Tillman-Watson can pull this off. While other candidates have more cash, she’s put a lot of shoe leather into this campaign.
Web sites: AlainJean.com, ElectRandySmith.com, Sallie4Florida.com
District 95
Incumbent: Democrat Ron Greenstein is term-limited out
Outlook: Democrats Chris Finnegan, Amy Shapiro Rose and Jim Waldman all want the job. I can’t say much about Finnegan. Waldman was the mayor of Coconut Creek, and is endorsed by outgoing representative Greenstein. Rose is the 32-year-old three-time president of the Broward Young Democrats. Both Waldman and Rose have great views on all the issues, and both of them would make excellent representatives. But given his years of experience in the district, the election will probably go to Waldman. That said, Rose should have a great future ahead of her. She’s a fighter, and she ought to be in Washington, not Tallahassee.
Web sites: ElectAmyRose.com, ElectJimWaldman.com
District 99
Incumbent: Democrat Eleanor Sobel is term-limited out
Outlook: In one of the most hotly contested state house districts of this year, the winner of a Democratic primary between Arthur Palamara, Barry Sacharow and Elaine Schwartz will face Republican Juan Selaya in the general election. Democrats outnumber Republicans by about 2-1 in the district, though, so the primary election will likely decide who will be the next representative. Elaine Schwartz has the backing of outgoing representative Sobel and Hollywood Mayor Mara Giulianti — of course, having the backing of someone as loathed as Mayor Mara isn’t necessarily a good thing. Palamara, a medical doctor, is a strong advocate of patients’ rights. Sacharow, who brought back Hollywood’s beloved CanadaFest in 1993, has also promoted several other festivals in the area. He’s also for universal healthcare, gay civil unions, and giving teens age 16 and older the right to vote in school board elections. Hell, the guy's probably the only candidate in the whole state with his own MySpace site. I freaking love it. Schwartz is the Joe Lieberman of this race — in with the political establishment and more center-right than actually progressive. Sacharow is the Ned Lamont. It’s difficult to say where Palamara fits in, but this race really comes down to Sacharow and Schwartz. If Hollywood wants a progressive Democrat, they’ll vote Sacharow. If they want a crony of Mayor Mara, they’ll vote Schwartz. Let’s hope the former rather than the latter.
Web sites: ArthurPalamara.com, BarrySacharow.com, ElaineSchwartz2006.com
District 100
Incumbent: Democrat Tim Ryan is term-limited out
Outlook: Bizarrely, Evan Jenne is running unopposed. Given the fact that his dad, Sheriff Ken Jenne, has suffered under the weight of massive scandal this year, I’m shocked that someone didn’t try to go against his son. It really speaks to the power of his father in the Broward Democratic Party that no one touched Evan. I’m vehemently opposed to political dynasties of any stripe, and since sonny-boy is already being referred to as the “newly elected” representative of district 100, he hasn’t even bothered with a Web site explaining his position on the issues. I’ll keep an open mind and assume that 28-year-old Evan will be a good representative, but given the corrupt state of the BSO and Evan’s utter lack of experience, I’m not holding my breath.
District 105
Incumbent: Democrat Ken Gottlieb is term-limited out
Outlook: Democrats Henry Rose and Joe Gibbons want to replace Gottlieb. This election is notable because of the absence of a write-in candidate. In other districts where only one party is running, the party gets a write-in candidate to run. That way, there’s more than one party in the race, and the primary is open only to members of that party. That hasn’t happened here. So, the primary is open to everyone. That’s reflected in the candidates, neither of whom take the strong, progressive stances of candidates in many of the other Democratic primaries. Instead, both Rose and Gibbons focus on local issues and what they can do for their communities — it’s not sexy, but it’s probably more honest. Both candidates have some name recognition, Rose as a long-time community activist (Pembroke Pines’ Citizen of the Year for 2006) and Gibbons as a City Commissioner of Hallandale Beach. Both candidates have raised similar amounts of cash too -- Gibbons somewhat more, but not enough to make much of a difference. This one’s a tossup.
Web sites: ElectHenryARose.com, ElectJoeGibbons.com
District 107
Incumbent: Republican Gustavo Barreiro is term-limited out
Outlook: The winner of a primary between Republicans Arthur Arnau, Frank Carollo, Robert Fernandez, Eric Padron and Xavier Suarez will face Democratic Miami Beach City Commissioner Luis Garcia in the general election. This one’s sort of the reverse of District 99 — it’s a heavily Republican district, so the primary will likely decide the representative. Although the district includes fairly Democratic South Beach, it also includes rabidly right-wing Little Havana. We can pretty much dismiss Arnau as a nonentity. Padron has the endorsement of Barreiro, Fernandez has the most cash and the endorsement of Jeb Bush, Suarez is the former mayor of Miami and Carollo is the brother of former Miami mayor Joe Carollo. Suarez and Carollo will probably burn each other out. All in all, I’m inclined to go with Fernandez.
Web sites: VoteFernandez06.com
District 108
Incumbent: Democrat Philip Brutus is retiring
Outlook: Democrats Ronald Brise, Kathy Emery, Hans Laurenceau, Eddie Lewis and Peter Walsh square off in the primary, with the winner facing Prospero Herrera in the general election. As with a couple of the other elections, the primary will really decide this race, as Herrera will probably get crushed. Brise, a high-school teacher, champions a living wage and greater funding of the Department of Children and Families; he also has the endorsement of outgoing Representative Brutus. Laurenceau sounds more like a Republican than a Democrat, calling for more funding for cops and longer prison sentences, along with the usual platitudes about improving healthcare and the environment; he has also raised the most money. Lewis is, well, crazy. Walsh touts improving education above all else and has picked up a few major endorsements, such as Janet Reno. Kathy Emery is a Community Council member, but has raised very little money, coming in second-to-last (Lewis being dead last). We can pretty much exclude Emery and Lewis. Brise started strong, but has almost run out of cash. That leaves Walsh and Laurenceau. I like Walsh, but I think Laurenceau will win this one.
Web sites: ElectWalsh.com, HansLaurenceau.com, Home.bellsouth.net/p/PWP-winprospero2006, Rab4108.com
District 120
Incumbent: Republican Ken Sorensen is term-limited out
Outlook: Republicans Sal Gutierrez, David Rice, Spencer Slate and Jeff Wander battle it out for the chance to face Democrat Ron Saunders in the primary. Count out Gutierrez — he’s raised almost no money. Monroe County Commissioner Rice has raised the most money by far — more than almost any other candidate in any state house race. Both Slate and Wander have raised enough cash to make things interesting, but Rice should pull this out in the end. Rice seems like a pretty good guy — none of the religio-crazy, bullshit family values talk you get from most Republicans. In fact, like Slate, his main issue is affordable housing for workers in the Florida Keys, the entire island chain being part of district 120. Unlike other districts, though, Rice will go on to face some pretty tough opposition in the general election. Saunders was the state representative for district 120 from 1986-1994. He’s a fifth-generation native of the Florida Keys, the sort of old-school cracker than can siphon off a few Republican votes while holding onto the Democratic base. It should be a great race, but I imagine Rice will win in the end.
Web sites: DavidRice2006.com, JeffWander.com, Ron120.com, SpencerSlate.com

Comments
Remarkable work, Dan, but I would never say Waldman has "great views on all the issues." Basically he's an amoral whore for money guys (see Kaiser College) and has strong Republican leanings. Rose, on the other hand, does her shilling for Dem party. Taking the lesser of two evils, I'd call Rose the superior candidate.
Posted by: Bob | August 16, 2006 2:34 PM
Dan, your tendency to stereotype candidates based on your own narrow viewpoint (such as your "religio-crazy, bullshit family values" quote) shows that you aren't a serious observer of the local political scene. A little more work on your part could have yielded a much more balanced comparison of the candidates.
Posted by: Dick Conklin | August 21, 2006 1:20 PM
Dan,
Prospero G. Herrera,II is the best candidate to serve District 108.
As a leader in the community, Prospero was able to find out the local issues which generated concerns amongst the residents of District 108 and Miami Dade County.
Education is the key component to the student success/retention in school. Standardize testing need to remain with the necessary improvements to allow the student to succeed. If a student is accepted to attend a Florida University or Community College and does not have the financial assistance from their parents, the State needs to allocate funds to allow the student to attend College.
Insurance has become a growing concern for the home and property owners in the State. It is time for the State to review/reform the insurance regulations, on allowing other companies to insure our home and property. Also, we should visit using the tax surplus to decrease the deficit to the Citizen Property Insurance.
Affordable housing is becoming a scarce commodity in Miami-Dade County. The dream of owning a home in Miami-Dade County is slowly disappearing as developers continue to build high price condos and homes. There is no incentive for the builders/developers to create low-to-mid cost residential housing. In South Florida, only the well off will be able to afford the housing prices, while others will be forced to move to find affordable housing elsewhere. In addition this could make South Florida less attractive to out-of-state businesses seeking new locations for their employees.
Transportation is a measure concern in our State and District. The County voted to increase the sales tax to provide a better transportation system. The citizens are still waiting for buses over their scheduled pick-up times. The State need to offer small transportation grants to entrepreneurs to start private bus services in highly populated areas.
The State needs to adequately fund the services for children with mental health problems. According to the Florida Council for Behavioral Healthcare, comprehensive treatment services for children with mental health problems can be successful in keeping families together, children succeed at school and in reducing involvement with the juvenile justice system. A national study was commenced and identified Florida as one of the three states with the highest rates of unmet need for children’s mental health care.
The Everglades is the most important and precious environmental resource that the State needs to protect. Failing to take care of the Everglades will change the health of Florida’s environment. Urban sprawls around the Everglades need to be controlled.
Prosperity Campaign of Florida needs to be funded. Many of our children are growing up in the community without knowing how to save for their future. This program will help facilitate the process.
Posted by: Herrera, II Campaign | August 23, 2006 11:50 PM
I want to thank you for picking me for your choice. It is time that the democrats had a true voice..
Posted by: Harriet Lerman | August 31, 2006 8:54 AM
Hello Dan,
I am running for Florida House, District 56. I am running against a well funded, ultra conservative 1 term incumbent. The district, which spans much of South Tampa and East Hillsborough, has 98,006 registered voters. 40% are Republicans, 35.4% are Democrats, and 24.6% are unaffiliated or registered with minor parties.
Since March, I have been walking the district and meeting voters. I have found 8 people. 8 people out of thousands who know who their current representative is.
As a fiscally conservative Democrat with a platform that excites people in my district -- I believe I can unseat the incumbent.
Regards,
Lee Nelson
www.electleenelson.com
Posted by: Lee Nelson | September 8, 2006 9:49 AM
Let's see, you called two of eleven the races right...what a great prognosticator you are. NOT!!!!
Posted by: cynical idealist | January 2, 2008 10:30 AM
Cynical Idealist --
Actually, if you'll look again, you'll see that I called the right winner in districts 82, 90, 95, 99 and 100. I also correctly called district 105 a tossup, as Joe Gibbons won by a hair's breadth. The ones I got wrong were mostly in tight primaries with four or five candidates, and I called the correct political party win in 10/11. The only one I got wrong there was District 120, and Saunders' win in the Keys surprised most people.
I don't know where you got the idea that I got 2 out of 11 right instead of the actual, correct number, but I blame the poor quality of Florida's education system, not you.
Posted by: Dan the Doomed | January 2, 2008 10:49 AM