Note that, when cities have been included in a District description, not all of that city is necessarily in the district.

Governor
Incumbent: none – Jeb Bush is term-limited out
Outlook: We all know this comes down to either Charlie Crist or Tom Gallagher versus either Jim Davis or Rod Smith. In the Crist/Gallagher primary, it’s the law-and-order cred of Attorney General Crist (though the man has actually been largely ineffective, especially in rooting out political corruption, as A.G.) against the social-conservative credo of Gallagher. Sensing that Crist’s message has more cachet, a lot of organizations that normally wait until after primaries have already given Crist their endorsement — the Irish-American Republicans and the Fraternal Order of Police among them. Crist, in my opinion, also has the backing of Jeb — no small thing despite Jeb’s outgoing status. I base this on nothing but scuttlebutt and the tendency of county GOP machines to endorse Crist after visits from state-party officials, but I'm not the only one thinking along these lines, and all of this buzz leads to more monetary contributions. Look for Crist to pull out the GOP nomination.
The Democratic side is far muddier. Davis is slightly more to the left than Smith, mainly because of his strong pro-labor stance, which is remarkable in this right-to-work state. Smith has more of the state party for him (a lot of state senators and former A.G. Bob Butterworth, among others). But Davis has most of the national party based in Florida – people like Alcee Hastings, Robert Wexler, Bob Graham and Debbie Wasserman-Schultz. Those big names help.
In the end, I think Davis will carry the day over Smith. This is both good and bad. Smith, with his background as a prosecutor, would cut off A.G. Crist’s law-and-order creds with some of his own. At the same time, Davis is the preferable candidate. Which means we’ll probably wind up with an admirable candidate going up against a more-electable one. Crist will run a campaign of fear, citing bogeymen like gangs, terrorism and drug runners. Davis will talk about economics and giving everyone a fair shake. If previous elections are any indication, most voters will vote with their fear over their own pocketbooks. It’s a shame — I like Davis. He seems to be a stand-up guy, and I think he’d be a hell of a governor. But he won’t be.
(STAYS GOP)

South Florida House races
District 17: Hollywood, Pembroke Pines, Carol City, North Miami Beach and North Miami
Incumbent: Kendrick Meek, Democrat
Outlook: I really like Democratic primary challenger Dufirstson Neree, both because Haitian-born Neree will more-admirably represent a growing Haitian community in the district and because I hate political dynasties of any stripe, and Meek inherited his mother’s congressional seat. Ivy Leaguer Neree also has more academic and business achievements. And it’d be a perfect opportunity for him to run, with general election opponent, Jesus freak Ishah Laurah Wright, being something of a nonentity. But, Meek should easily pull this out.
Web sites: GoNeree.com, Ishahforcongress.com, KendrickMeek.us
(STAYS DEM)

District 18: Miami, Miami Beach, Coral Gables and Coral Terrace
Incumbent: Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Republican
Outlook: In 85 percent of her votes, Ros-Lehtinen voted the same way as Tom DeLay. At the same time, that 15 percent has done enough to cater to would-be Democratic voters that she’ll probably slide. In particular, Ros-Lehtinen has co-sponsored numerous gay-rights bills, making her something of an anathema to her GOP colleagues and a hero to the Log Cabin Republicans. It should be noted that she’s more than willing to back anti-gay legislation went it won’t hurt her constituents, though – as in 1999, when she voted yes on a bill that banned gay adoption in Washington, D.C. She’s in the pocket of Scientologists, as well, and her record is full of bizarre discrepancies like the aforementioned gay example — basically, she’s a very strong conservative until it might adversely affect her chance of getting re-elected. I really like Democratic hopeful “Big Dave” Patlak, who will certainly beat out Daniel Manichello in the primary. Unfortunately, the Hispanic vote will probably carry the day for Ros-Lehtinen, the first Hispanic congresswoman.
Web sites: VotebigDave.com, Daniel06.com, House.gov/ros-lehtinen
(STAYS GOP)

District 19: Greenacres, Coral Springs and Margate
Incumbent: Robert Wexler, Democrat
Outlook: Wexler, all in all a pretty good guy, despite his initially hawkish, credulous stance on Iraq, runs unopposed here.
Web site: Wexlerforcongress.com
(STAYS DEM)

District 20: Fort Lauderdale, Dania Beach, Wilton Manors, Weston, Plantation, Davie, Aventura and Sunny Isles
Incumbent: Debbie Wasserman-Schultz
Outlook: Can’t say enough good things about Debbie. For a first-term congresswoman, she has performed brilliantly. No one made the GOP look as stupid during the Schiavo mess. Like Wexler, she can wear blinders when it comes to matters affecting the state if Israel. But other than that, she’s righteous. She’s for universal healthcare, bolstering education while losing No Child Left Behind, and returning to Clinton-era economic policies. Amen. Speaking of Amens, like Kendrick Meek, “The Wass” faces a Christian fundamentalist, anti-gay activist Margaret Hostetter. That’s right – an anti-gay activist is running to be the congresswoman for Wilton Manors. Only in the GOP. The Wass beat Hostetter in 2004, and she’ll beat the fundie soccer mom this time too.
Web sites: Dwsforcongress.com, MargaretHostetter.us
(STAYS DEM)

District 21: Hialeah, Olympia Heights, Glenvar Heights, Sunset, Kendall and Cutler
Incumbent: Lincoln Diaz-Balart, Republican
Outlook: This member of the politically powerful Diaz-Balart clan faces negligible opposition in 2006 in the form of Libertarian-turned-Democrat Frank Gonzalez. Gonzalez’s campaign is a few years ahead of its time. He supports loosening our trade sanctions and travel prohibitions with Cuba, a position that will work well in the coming years, as younger Cubans care more about visiting relatives than quashing Castro. Unfortunately for Gonzalez, the hardcore, rightwing Cuban base is getting older, but they’re far from dead.
Web sites: Politicalgateway.com/cand.php?id=186, Diaz-balart.house.gov
(STAYS GOP)

District 22: West Palm Beach, Palm Beach Gardens, Boca Raton, Deerfield Beach, Coconut Creek, Oakland Park and Cooper City
Incumbent: Clay Shaw, Republican
Outlook: Perhaps the most interesting congressional race in Florida. Shaw won reelection in 2004 by a relatively slim margin, when compared to other House races in Florida. John Glassie gets a proud shot of tequila for stepping up and running as a Democrat, but State Senate Minority Leader Ron Klein will kill him in the primary. National Journal ranked Shaw the second-most politically vulnerable House incumbent in the country. Blame it on the changing face of his district – since he showed up in 1981, Oakland Park, for example, has gone from mostly redneck to mostly gay. Klein has already raised more cash than Shaw. It should be noted that I don’t really like Klein – he was largely ineffective as a minority leader, and his wishy-washy views have translated to his congressional campaign. That said, Shaw is a sleazebag who should have been kicked out of Congress a long time ago, and would have been if we had the sense to have moderate term limits in this country. Aren’t 10 terms in Congress enough? All in all, with Shaw’s vulnerable state and Klein raising money like gangbusters, I’m inclined to think Klein can pull this one off – especially given that Shaw’s campaign Web site is already going negative, slinging mud left and right without talking about the issues (note that Shaw’s campaign Web site doesn’t even have a link for an issues page. Just Endorsements, Awards, Press Releases, Events, etc.). Any campaign that goes negative this early and is afraid to say where it stands on the issues is probably screwed.
Web sites: Ronklein2006.com, JBGlassie.politicalgateway.com, Clayshaw.com
(SWITCHES TO DEM)

District 23: Belle Glade, Boynton Beach, Delray Beach, Pompano Beach, Tamarac, Sunrise and Lauderhill
Incumbent: Alcee Hastings, Democrat
Outlook: Alcee’s running unopposed. Nuff said.
Web site: Alceeforcongress.com
(STAYS DEM)

District 24: Port Orange, New Smyrna Beach, Edgewater, Titusville, Winter Springs and Winter Park
Incumbent: Tom Feeney, Republican
Outlook: Admittedly, this isn’t South Florida. But I included it anyway because it’s nearby, and it could be the nastiest House race in the entire country. Tom Feeney should win handily, no matter who wins the democratic primary. That primary will test whether old-school political machines or Internet grassroots wins the day. Andy Michaud is a long-time local Democrat with deep roots in the community. Clint Curtis is a hero to many liberals, especially those concerned with electoral fraud. In 2000, Curtis, a former Republican, maintains that he was approached by Feeney while he worked as a computer programmer. Feeney, in collusion with Jeb Bush, demanded a prototype program that could be used to rig election machines. Curtis has since taken out an affidavit and passed a lie-detector test to this effect. If he wins the primary against Michaud, the Feeney vs. Curtis election will be war. But in a strongly Republican district, look to Feeney to carry the day.
Web sites: Clintcurtis.com, AndyMichaud2006.com, Tomfeeney.com
(STAYS GOP)

District 25: Cutler Bay, Leisure City and Homestead
Incumbent: Mario Diaz-Balart, Republican
Outlook: This district is about as red as they come, and Democrat Michael Calderin’s campaign is reportedly woefully underfunded. Calderin’s campaign has been plagued by bad luck as well. An appearance by Senator John Kerry would have been perhaps Calderin’s biggest appearance by a big-name Democrat; Kerry’s ex-wife died two days before the scheduled April 29 appearance. With low funds and a seemingly cursed campaign, Calderin's chances are slim.
Web sites: Calderin2006.com, House.gov/mariodiaz-balart
(STAYS GOP)